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Contact: lppipress@luskin.ucla.edu
UCLA LPPI Analysis Finds Medi-Cal Expansion Enrollment Fell by Nearly 71,000 Amid Heightened Immigration Enforcement Activity
Findings suggest ICE raids may have influenced decisions to enroll in or maintain Medi-Cal.
LOS ANGELES, CA (June 23, 2026) — A new data brief from the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute (LPPI) and the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge (CNK) finds that Medi-Cal enrollment among California adults covered through the state’s health coverage expansion program declined sharply during the second half of 2025, a period marked by intensified immigration enforcement activity across the state.
Authored by Paul Ong, Caylin Luebeck, Chhandara Pech, Rosario Majano, Vinna Lee, Naya Lee, and Arturo Vargas Bustamante, the new analysis examines monthly enrollment data from the California Department of Health Care Services alongside arrest records from the Deportation Data Project, compiled by UC Berkeley and UCLA. Enrollment in California’s adult Medi-Cal expansion population fell by nearly 71,000 individuals between June and December 2025 after experiencing modest growth during the first half of the year.
Key findings from the brief include:
- Adult Medi-Cal expansion enrollment reversed course after mid-2025, declining by nearly 71,000 enrollees between June 2025 and December 2025.
- The rate of enrollment declines among expansion enrollees were more than twice as large as the rate of decline among non-expansion Medi-Cal enrollees during the same period.
- Both Latino and non-Latino expansion enrollees experienced similar enrollment losses after mid-year.
- Approximately one-third of the enrollment decline among the expansion population is consistent with a potential “chilling effect” where concerns about immigration enforcement may lead eligible individuals to avoid enrolling in or renewing Medi-Cal coverage in.
“The consequences of immigration enforcement extend beyond immigration outcomes,” said Ong, research professor and director of the UCLA CNK and co-author of the brief. “When fear discourages families from seeking health coverage or medical care, the effects can ripple through communities and deepen existing health inequities.”
While these findings do not establish a direct causal relationship, they suggest that concerns about immigration enforcement may have influenced enrollment decisions among populations eligible for Medi-Cal expansion.
The brief notes that these impacts may extend beyond immigrant populations. Approximately 70% of undocumented immigrants live in mixed-status households that include U.S. citizens or lawfully present family members, meaning concerns about immigration enforcement can influence health care decisions across entire families. The authors conclude that continued enrollment losses could have lasting implications for public health, preventive care access, and health equity, particularly among immigrant communities and mixed-status families.
“Health coverage only protects people when they feel safe enough to enroll and stay covered,” said Bustamante, faculty research director at LPPI and co-author of the brief. “Our findings suggest that heightened immigration enforcement may have intensified already existing fear and uncertainty that discouraged some eligible Californians from enrolling in or maintaining Medi-Cal coverage.”
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About UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute:
The UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute is a non-partisan research institute that seeks to inform, engage, and empower Latinos through innovative research and policy analysis. LPPI aims to promote equitable and inclusive policies that address the needs of the Latino community and advance social justice. latino.ucla.edu.
